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January brought us another new low in inventory in Bend and Redmond since starting this project in late 2009. We of course expect lower inventory in winter and higher in summer which the first two Bend charts show very well. What is worth noting is all categories show a long-term trend of inventory decline for over 3 years.
Reminder: the charts and tables do not include bare land, multi-family homes, time shares or mobile homes without land.
The summer inventory peaks and the…Continue
Added by Robert Page on February 13, 2013 at 2:37pm — No Comments
A quick summary:
2012 finished strong ending up 8.8% over 2011 when measuring by average Price Per Sq. Ft. and 11.7 % when measuring by average sale price. There are reports of 15% so I want to clarify that my reports are based on the following:
Residential Single Family Residences under 1 acre in Bend
I exclude the following from the report: Townhomes, Condos, all…Continue
Added by Robert Page on January 21, 2013 at 1:04am — No Comments
List-to-sold ratios dove into negative territory in December. December List-to-sold ratios tend to be the lowest of the year anyway but this is the first time since starting this project in 2007 we have witnessed a monthly average in negative territory.
Admittedly one month out of over sixty is but a blip on the radar screen. Even so it is a pretty big drop along a very long downward trend.
Chart 1 shows the long downward trend over several years and the dive to negative…Continue
Added by Robert Page on January 11, 2013 at 4:36pm — No Comments
We typically expect MLS inventory in the 4th to quarter begin dropping but boy howdy, inventory levels really dropped this year! We are at the lowest level since starting this project in 2009 and on a long-term downward trajectory in all three segments of sale type.
To see a graphic illustration of this trend view the charts and…Continue
Added by Robert Page on December 22, 2012 at 10:46pm — No Comments
A quick summary:
2012 is definitely showing strong improvement; up 7% over 2011 when measuring by $/sq ft and 9.4% when measuring by average sale price. The rest of the story is the shrinking supply of inventory as has been shown for a long time now by the inventory and list to sold charts.
I don’t typically get excited about monthly figures but the past 5 months show a significant upward shift. See…Continue
Added by Robert Page on October 28, 2012 at 5:23pm — No Comments
Charts show a decline in inventory we’ve come to expect in the 4th quarter however they also depict a long-term trend downward. Of equal note, the past 3 years have shown an increase in Bank owned (REO) inventory in the 4th quarter. So far, that isn’t happening. It is early though, we’ll see.
To view charts and tables: …Continue
Made some changes to the charts to make it easier to see trends as well as changes in variation; change is definitely apparent.
List to sold ratios continue their long-term decline. Down in 2012 from 2011; down the last 3 months as we near the fourth quarter a time when, since 2007 (except 2009) they drop even further. 2012 has already seen the lowest list to sold ratios since the beginning of this project in 2007. If the 4th quarter trend repeats expect even lower…Continue
Added by Robert Page on September 16, 2012 at 11:36pm — No Comments
Current price stabilization is certainly a result of the list to sold ratio’s slow but steady decline that began drastically in 2009 blipped up just a bit in 2010 and has been on a slow but steady decline since. If the 15 month average list to sold ratio of 1.6 for all of Central Oregon holds we should expect further inventory reduction. Inventory reports will be complete in a week or two.
Based on results since 2007, we have past the “typical” season of increasing list to sold ratios…Continue
Added by Robert Page on June 21, 2012 at 1:17am — No Comments
Our market remains dynamic!
A quick summary:
Our market continues on a very long, slow but steady improvement trend. By many measures this improvement trend began in 2009/2010. See list to sold ratio charts, inventory charts, sales price charts etc.
As usual, the media is slow to recognize subtle changes and is just beginning to pick up on the accumulated improvement, adding positive influence to the difficult to measure but ever important perception…Continue
Added by Robert Page on May 24, 2012 at 3:31pm — No Comments
Even with a healthy seasonal uptick, 2012 is starting off at the lowest list to sold ratios since beginning this project in 2007. The REO segment, which were it not for huge losses to the seller, continues to act like a hot sellers market, continuing to create many a disgruntled would be buyer.
Demand for Central Oregon Real Estate has been and remains very good, especially in Bend while supply has a long trend of decline behind it. If these trends hold, past price firming trends…Continue
Added by Robert Page on March 25, 2012 at 11:58pm — No Comments
Been converting the list-to-sold charts into a more user-friendly SPC format creating an easier to read and interpret chart. Clarity was greatly improved allowing me to resurrect the original daily list to sold ratio chart. It shows some fantastically high variation back in early 2007 when our market was screaming, largely unheeded to us of change. It wasn’t until 2008 when the Feds declared (admitted) that we had been in a recession for a year, did the general public begin to reluctantly…Continue
Added by Robert Page on March 7, 2012 at 9:26am — No Comments
If you’ve been tracking the list-to-sold and inventory charts and tables you are very aware that inventory trends have been moving down for a long time. Even so, prices continued to decline, albeit at a slowing pace. Even so, it seemed that if this trend continued, surely price firming and possibly price increases were on the horizon, right?
It’s finally beginning to look that way as price direction is looking pretty flat which is a vast improvement over the cliff-like…Continue
Added by Robert Page on March 1, 2012 at 11:29pm — No Comments
Added by Robert Page on January 29, 2012 at 7:00pm — No Comments
We have been and are currently experiencing flattening to downward pressure on inventory coupled with close to average sales activity. Positive appreciation experienced 2nd qtr over 1stthis year could very well be repeated if current trends continue and some or all of historic trends occur again (see first…Continue
Added by Robert Page on September 4, 2011 at 1:52pm — No Comments