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List to Sold Ratios Continue Trending Down

List to Sold ratios in Central Oregon took a leap down the past 3 months. We expect this in the fourth quarter anyway but what is really notable is the big shift down from the previous four years (See Chart 1).

That villain called variation I keep ranting about has really tamed down. Chart 2 depicts this decrease in variation extremely well. With this taming down of variation our market becomes more and more predictable. We do have that darn shadow inventory lurking around though. More on that below...

All said based on past results and the long downward trend in list to sold ratios, we should expect continued inventory decline in Central Oregon. Redmond and outlying areas are sure to become more and more appealing to buyers as Bend inventory continues to tighten up as it has been doing for several years now.

Another thought on past results, List to sold ratios typically spike in January, leading to inventory increases in late winter/spring. This spike has become less and less significant year to year and it will be very interesting to see if this trend continues.

It seems there is or should be quite a back log of distressed properties due to delays in the foreclosure process and the overall seeming hesitance of many lenders to move forward with the foreclosure process, in the first place.

This “shadow inventory” becomes increasingly difficult to measure, let alone accurately predicting dates or rates of release. One thing is for certain, there have been plenty of inaccurate predictions this past year! What can be said with certainty is inventory has been a on a long downward trend and prices have been on a long upward trend.

As always, only time will accurately tell the tale of our market.

See list to Sold Charts and other very informative charts:
http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

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Comment by Marvin Von Renchler on December 13, 2012 at 1:53pm

Im sure you are talking local numbers---most of the gains in property values have been in the low end housing, moved by investors who now have low prices vs higher rent income. It makes sense now to own rentals. This doesnt apply to higher value properties although its  an increase that can be applied to all real estate sales. Some of the media headlines are quite misleading in this regard. I do BPOs non stop all day7 days a week and have for three years. I know what the trends are in the Portland area and I pay attention to stats from other large cities.  As we reach the max rent that Joe and Jane Renter can handle, this will taper off quickly.

 

Regarding shadow inventory, word is that huge investment entities are now considering buying up shadow inventory to keep as rentals. Fewer will be marketed than previously thought. The face of real estate is changing rapidly as we all pull away from the American Dream of having to own the roof over our heads. The banking/investment system will becomericher, the middle class will drop down to the new poor class, with little inbetween. We are becoming an entitlement nation. Millions dependent upon government programs just where Obama wanted us. Horrible for the country long term but great for votes now.

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