List to Sold ratios in Central Oregon took a leap down the past 3 months. We expect this in the fourth quarter anyway but what is really notable is the big shift down from the previous four years (See Chart 1).
That villain called variation I keep ranting about has really tamed down. Chart 2 depicts this decrease in variation extremely well. With this taming down of variation our market becomes more and more predictable. We do have that darn shadow inventory lurking around though. More on that below...
All said based on past results and the long downward trend in list to sold ratios, we should expect continued inventory decline in Central Oregon. Redmond and outlying areas are sure to become more and more appealing to buyers as Bend inventory continues to tighten up as it has been doing for several years now.
Another thought on past results, List to sold ratios typically spike in January, leading to inventory increases in late winter/spring. This spike has become less and less significant year to year and it will be very interesting to see if this trend continues.
It seems there is or should be quite a back log of distressed properties due to delays in the foreclosure process and the overall seeming hesitance of many lenders to move forward with the foreclosure process, in the first place.
This “shadow inventory” becomes increasingly difficult to measure, let alone accurately predicting dates or rates of release. One thing is for certain, there have been plenty of inaccurate predictions this past year! What can be said with certainty is inventory has been a on a long downward trend and prices have been on a long upward trend.
As always, only time will accurately tell the tale of our market.
See list to Sold Charts and other very informative charts: