Been converting the list-to-sold charts into a more user-friendly SPC format creating an easier to read and interpret chart. Clarity was greatly improved allowing me to resurrect the original daily list to sold ratio chart. It shows some fantastically high variation back in early 2007 when our market was screaming, largely unheeded to us of change. It wasn’t until 2008 when the Feds declared (admitted) that we had been in a recession for a year, did the general public begin to reluctantly believe our Real Estate market was headed toward a correction.
The list-to-sold ratios appear to be telling us of significant change again and have been for several years now. Following this shift, price depreciation slowed down dramatically, flattened and prices even appreciated slightly in 2011. Who knows what will happen tomorrow or the next day in our modern world, full of volatility. We do know where we have been with some very long and sustained trends that will certainly affect us tomorrow. See price charts.
The past 14 months have been pretty close to flat with a slight uptick in this first quarter. Compared to past years though, this uptick is quite insignificant.
Based on past and current list to sold ratios, my bet on the next 6 months will be continued price firming with an equal chance of slight appreciation or depreciation. Just a hunch based on what I see in the list to sold ratios…
I’ll be posting inventory levels in a week or two and based on list to sold ratios, expect flat to decreasing volume of active properties.
Follow the red and you will see the trends; past being drastic and present looking like we may be headed to some semblance of predictability.
http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html
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