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Well, it’s mid year 2011 and I want to take a minute and look back at those silly predictions I made in December of 2010 so that I can toot my own horn a little. I am a good tooter.

On December 30th 2010 at 10:54am cst on REOPro, I made 7 predictions about what I believed would occur in the US economy as a whole and in turn, the housing industry.

I predicted that 2011 “may actually end up seeing the highest number for foreclosures in our nations recorded history.”

As reported by Judson Berger on June 15, 2011, a recent report released by Paul Dales, Senior US Economist for Capital Economics, estimated that since the collapse of the housing market, when prices peaked back in 2006, home prices have fallen 33%. This is significant because that is more than the 31% nose dive recorded between the 1920’s and 1930’s……..through the Great Depression. So, barring any miraculous recovery, I would say that my prediction is about right on track.

The reasons I gave for this Gloom and Doom forecast, as some of you called it was…..

  1. Lack of substantial job growth
  2. 5, 7, and 10 year ARMS adjust in 2011. (I met with someone today in fact to help them short sale for this very reason…..10 year arm.
  3. Home Retention programs prevent bottoming out of housing industry
  4. Energy prices rise. I even predicted $5.00 a gallon gasoline, SAY IT ISN’T SO!
  5. Risk of inflation becomes a real concern, how much did you pay for milk on your last grocery shopping trip this week?
  6. Credit Tightening…… yeah.
  7. Unforeseen national crisis, middle east is on fire, that’s more a international crisis so, I can’t take the credit for this one yet.

Ok, so…..yeah, I was right, hell…..almost dead on but, make not mistake, that gives me no joy, other than the fact that I know what the hell I am talking about yet, it burdens my heart when I have to evict a single mother raising 6 kids or talk to a immigrant family on an ARM that adjusted and now they can’t afford their home, when they came to this country to make a better life for themselves. This stuff is like a punch in the gut but, we can’t be a nation of ostriches with our heads in the sand any more!

So, indulge me for a moment and let me predict what is coming the next 6 months.

I predict a continual worsening of the housing industry with previously marginally unaffected areas beginning to see higher foreclosure rates and, areas that are already suffering area will see a continued nose dive that will make the Great Depression look like a cake walk!

Reason # 1: Continued job losses.

This administration just doesn’t believe in the individual and it will continue to stay on course with it’s bigger government policies of wealth redistribution therefore, preventing the private sector from being able to throw off the burden of large government and create jobs.

Reason # 2: Fears of a complete collapse of the US Dollar move the Fed to do more quantitative easing and inflation takes off.

Creating more money just creates inflation….we all agree on this however, what we don’t agree on is just how fast the us economy can grow to stem the tide of inflation. Some…most liberals, believe the US economy is ready to take off and with a little magic fairy dust….it just might do that but, conservatives believe that the US economy can’t take off because the government is too big and prevents it. My fear is that the conservatives are correct and we won’t be able to shrink Government enough, quickly enough to allow the private sector to create the jobs necessary to prevent the potential dramatic rise of inflation and thus, the value of the dollar hits the floor.

Reason # 3: More Government programs to stop foreclosure

THIS HAS GOT TO STOP. We can’t recover until we have hit the bottom. The more we prevent his from happening, the longer this economic tide will last. LOOK AT JAPAN FOR GODS SAKE!.

Reason # 4: Energy prices will continue to rise.

President Obama ,”Under my plan, energy prices would necessarily sky rocket” Need I say more?

Reason # 5: Middle East turmoil erupts into surrounding neighbor countries and Israel is threatened.

Now, this may not happen by year end but, the stage is being set. If something terrible happen to Israel, look for all hell to break loose with the financial markets. Confidence will be shattered, it will be the straw that breaks the camels back.

So that’s just my top 5…..any thoughts?

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Comment by Steve Adkins on June 18, 2011 at 12:26pm
I have a bad feeling that your predictions may be to the conservative side. I agree with you that we are far from seeing the bottom.

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